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Is Aaron Judge The Next Babe Ruth … Or The Next Jeremy

Average3073.23252.1 3Fred Lynn19752823.83233.3 1Aaron Judge20173345.1—— 10Joc Pederson20153243.1261-0.1 1ST HALF2ND HALF 12Greg Gross19742913.03851.3 After the latest chapter of Aaron Judge’s breakout season — a dominant Home Run Derby performance that was as impressive in its ease as it was in its raw power — the New York Yankees right fielder seems poised to take over as baseball’s elusive superstar ambassador.“[He] can become the face of the game,” MLB commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters at the All-Star Game. “He is a tremendous talent on the field and really appealing off the field.”Perhaps. Like the previous “face of baseball,” Derek Jeter, Judge plays in the biggest media market, for baseball’s highest-profile team. (One that happens to be having a surprisingly good season, its recent slide notwithstanding.) There’s a reason more people have Googled Judge in each month this season than have searched for possible future GOAT Mike Trout in any month of his career.That’s an awful lot of pressure to heap on a guy who’s still technically an MLB rookie, of course, and his game still has flaws. Although he’s having one of baseball’s all-time great rookie seasons, even a player as gargantuan as Judge might be dwarfed by regression to the mean before the season is over.Even if Judge gets swallowed whole by the regression monster, though, his phenomenal first half tells us a lot. Just as former Knicks guard Jeremy Lin’s dominant early games suggested he would become at least a pretty good player — which has been (kinda) true — it’s almost impossible to have even a half-season like Judge’s without at least panning out as a good ballplayer, if not something much more.Let’s put some of his numbers to date in context: His 30 home runs at the All-Star break tied for the 26th most by any player — rookie or not — since 1913;1The earliest season for which Baseball-Reference.com’s split finder has data. his .691 slugging percentage was tied for 75th. He was one of only 44 players to post a first-half batting average of at least .320 and an isolated power of at least .350. Overall, his on-base plus slugging (OPS) was 101 percent better than league average, the 90th-best first half in that department that any hitter has enjoyed since 1913.Most impressive is Judge’s company on that top-100 list: Babe Ruth (10 times), Ted Williams (eight), Lou Gehrig (five) and so forth. Twenty-five of the 52 players who appeared on the list are in the Hall of Fame, and many of those who aren’t either will be (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera), should be (Larry Walker, Edgar Martinez), would be if not for a scandal (Barry Bonds, Shoeless Joe Jackson) or could eventually be (Bryce Harper).And among rookies, Judge’s first half was virtually peerless. According to FanGraphs.com, he generated 5.1 wins above replacement (WAR) in the months of April, May and June. Since 1974,2The first year FanGraphs.com tracked monthly WAR splits. no other rookie has broken 5 WAR in the first three months of a season, and only one — Chris Sabo in 1988 — has even earned 4 WAR. Judge is easily off to the best first half of a rookie season in modern history. 3Corey Seager20163433.83443.7 25Jose Canseco19863422.53400.4 7Devon White19873413.43551.2 6Mike Trout20122583.63816.3 But the history of great rookie seasons also shows how strong the pull of regression can be: The average player on this list ended up producing only two-thirds as many WAR in the second half of his rookie campaign as he did in the first. For every Trout, who started strong (despite a delayed call-up) and then decimated the league down the stretch, there were more cases like Devon White, Joc Pederson and even Sabo, all of whom struggled to recapture the magic of their first-half performances.Judge will likely face a similar fate. Based on his batted-ball numbers, we’d expect Judge to be hitting .303 right now, not .329. Although nobody hits the ball harder, Judge’s .426 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) stands out even next to the game’s other hard hitters, suggesting some kind of second-half downturn is probably in order.3Although, as my ESPN colleague Paul Hembekides pointed out, BABIP doesn’t include home runs. If you add Judge’s homers into his BABIP, he’s hitting a ridiculous .516 when he doesn’t strike out — the best single-season mark in history. Likewise, Judge has hit a staggering 42 percent of his fly balls out of the park, another relatively luck-driven number that will likely come back down to earth. (Even the most powerful hitters can sustain a homers-per-fly rate of only 25 to 30 percent.)4Sometimes this particular stat can be more sustainable than we’d expect on its face because of park effects, but Yankee Stadium is much more of a haven for left-handed power hitters than righties like Judge. And while Judge has drawn plenty of walks and shown good plate discipline for a rookie, he’s also whiffed a lot. His low contact rate might become problematic as pitchers study his weaknesses and develop more sophisticated strategies against him.Given all that, it would be very surprising if the regression bug didn’t bite Judge during the season’s second half.If and when that does happen, some folks will surely blame it on the dreaded “Home Run Derby curse” — the idea that participating in the contest (much less winning it as Judge did) mucks up a player’s swing over the rest of the season. This topic has been researched to death over the years, with various studies finding it to be a myth … or maybe slightly real. While it’s true that far more Derby participants have fallen off in the second half than have improved, there’s an obvious selection bias at work, too: In order to be picked for the contest in the first place, players need great first-half power numbers — most likely well above their career norms. By regression to the mean alone, we’d expect a group of players selected specifically because they had an abnormally great first half to decline in the second.For what it’s worth, I tried to account for this effect by measuring Derby contestants against a control group of hitters who had similar first-half power numbers (as measured by at-bats per home run) but didn’t participate in the contest.5In each season, the control group had to include players who logged as many plate appearances, as many at-bats per homer and as high an OPS as the lowest-ranked Derby participant in each category. That left me with a sample of 416 hitters in the control group since 2002, versus 122 Derby contestants. Since 2002, the average Derby participant saw his OPS decline by 56 points in the second half of the season — but the average member of the control group also saw his OPS fall by 49 points, a negligible difference.However, there is one area where Derby participants did drop off a bit more than we’d expect: raw power. While the control group’s average isolated power (or slugging percentage minus batting average) fell 25 points, the Derby group’s average dropped by 36 points. Both groups saw an identical 0.5 percentage-point dip in hard-hit ball rate, but Derby hitters hit slightly fewer fly balls than we’d expect based on the control group,6A decline of 1 percentage point, versus a 0.6-percentage-point dip for the control group. and their rate of home runs per fly fell by 2.8 percentage points, compared with a decline of 1.7 percentage points for the control group.Either way, the overall cost of participating in the Derby is (at most) quite small compared with the toll exacted by regression to the mean.And said regression will probably be Aaron Judge’s biggest enemy in the second half of the season. Sadly, no player can escape its clutches for very long — not even the most wildly entertaining hitter on the planet. PLAYERSEASONPAWARPAWAR 10Tim Raines19812413.11220.7 18Dan Uggla20063022.83811.5 16Kent Hrbek19822742.93170.4 The best rookie first halves of the modern eraMost wins above replacement (WAR) in April/May/June of a player’s rookie season since 1974 20Juan Samuel19843542.73830.4 2Chris Sabo19882934.22890.5 8Evan Longoria20083023.22062.4 3Albert Pujols20013323.83443.5 12Eric Hinske20022993.03511.6 22Nomar Garciaparra19973582.63763.8 20Willie Randolph19762712.72281.8 22Butch Wynegar19762832.63390.9 12Alvin Davis19843083.03702.3 22Billy Hamilton20143032.63081.1 12Ichiro Suzuki20013743.03643.0 Source: FanGraphs 16Kris Bryant20152942.93563.7 18Mark McGwire19872842.83572.2 8Mike Piazza19932883.23144.3 read more

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Governor Makes Official Visit to South Caicos

first_imgFacebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp#TurksandCaicos, December 12, 2017 – South Caicos – H.E. the Governor, Dr John Freeman, and Mrs Freeman made an official visit to South Caicos on 6th December.   The Deputy Governor, H.E. Anya Williams, was also part of his delegation.   Following his visit H.E. the Governor commented:“It was a great pleasure to visit South Caicos again.   I was able to see for myself the damage still evident from the passage of Hurricanes Irma and Maria over the island. Making repairs to homes and public buildings remains a real challenge for the local community.I also visited two local conch and lobster processing plants and witnessed the determination of both businesses to get back to normal.   I saw for myself the efforts being made by Sailrock, not only to repair damage to their own resort buildings but also to provide assistance to the local community.And I saw once again the real promise of local young people during my time at the Iris Stubbs Primary and at the Marjorie Basden High School.   South Caicos is a great island with huge potential and I and my wife were grateful for the opportunity once more to see that potential for ourselves.”Press Release: TCIG Related Items:last_img read more

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Haryana pavilion nurtures local talent

first_imgHaryana Governor Kaptan Singh Solanki visited the Haryana Pavilion set up in the ongoing India International Trade Fair 2015 at Pragati Maidan in the national Capital. The Governor viewed in the products produced in the industrial units set up by women entrepreneurs.Speaking on the occasion, the Governor said, “Haryana Pavilion has been decorated as per the theme of ‘Make in India’. The progress of Haryana has been made explicit through the decoration. Also Read – ‘Playing Jojo was emotionally exhausting’While looking at the stall of ‘Skill Development’, he added “This would provide employment opportunities to the youth of the state. He said that skill development should also be propagated and publicised in the rural regions of the state so that rural people could also be benefitted through it.”The talking dustbin  equipped with sensors displayed by the students of Manav Rachna University Faridabad also attracted attention. The Governor highly appreciated the foot wears  of Jhajjar and artificial jewelry displayed by women belonging to Gurgaon and Faridabad.Prof Solanki also over viewed the food products displayed by Haryana Dairy Development Co-Operative Federation , Vita and HAFED. Secretary of the Governor Neelam P Kasni, Resident Commissioner and Chief Administrator of Haryana Trade Fair Authority Anand Mohan Sharan, Administrator of Haryana Trade Fair Authority Shyamal Misra and various other dignitaries were present.last_img read more

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Online Training Platform Gives Job Seekers a Boost

first_img Register Now » 3 min read This story appears in the December 2012 issue of . Subscribe » What It IsLearnUp.me, an online job placement and training platform, enables job seekers to bone up on specific skills required by prospective employers. Companies post their open positions, ranging from bakery clerk to technology associate, then add links to training videos on YouTube or other approved material. For example, Staples candidates might be asked to watch the YouTube video “How to Make a Business Card.” Once users complete the training, their LearnUp résumés are automatically updated to reflect their efforts, and they can be considered for the open slot.How It StartedAfter her startup Valence Energy was acquired in 2010, Alexis Ringwald became interested in the unemployment problem. She spent six months interviewing people in the unemployment lines in the Bay Area, trying to determine what was keeping them from landing work.”It seemed a lot of people’s skills were out of sync with the labor market needs of today,” Ringwald says. “There was a sense of confusion by the job seekers, a paralysis over what they needed to learn to be qualified.”In September 2011 Ringwald met Kenny Ma at the education-themed Mega Startup Weekend at Microsoft’s campus in Mountain View, Calif., and the two joined together to launch LearnUp, which was announced in June at the Clinton Global Initiative America meeting in Chicago.Why It Took Off”Even employers with entry-level positions are having a hard time finding skilled workers,” Ringwald says. Her vision was for LearnUp to bridge the gap, giving job seekers the expertise they needed and companies an educated employee pool from which to choose. Staples and Safeway were on the board of the San Jose, Calif., unemployment office and signed up immediately. Gap, KPMG, TeleTech, Whole Foods Market and others came on shortly thereafter.The Business CaseBacked in part by venture capital firm New Enterprise Associates, LearnUp recently received $1.9 million in funding, enough to build the team and expand throughout California. The company’s revenue model is based on a finder’s fee for successful job placements. Job seekers are not charged to access the listings or to complete any required training.Still in startup mode, Ringwald won’t divulge the number of positions LearnUp has filled so far, noting that the company is using San Jose as a test case.What’s NextLearnUp is working with community colleges in California to help guide curriculum development that will give students the education that prospective employers are seeking. The company is also working with its national clients to expand job placements for positions across California by the end of the year. Growing a business sometimes requires thinking outside the box. Free Webinar | Sept. 9: The Entrepreneur’s Playbook for Going Global December 26, 2012last_img read more

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